Market View 20230628

Yesterday, we saw too much drama for the day. First was changing the holiday (from Wednesday to Thursday) & second was changing the expiry date of BankNifty from Friday back to Thursday. All this mind you, at short notice.

Looks like a bunch of unprofessional people are running the show. Anyways...

As we look at the markets, there is only one question on our mind, as the tide turned, or is this a bull trap (i.e. making the bulls think that its fulfilled the technicals and so everything is bullish now)?

I've started building up my August position slowly, wasn't expecting that much of a move as we saw yesterday, which seems like a short covering. And if it was, we can expect the lower side tested today. Though I will adjust my position based on the rules we have set aside.

In addition to the date changes, we also got the news from HDFC Bank Merger, and that all would be ready from 1 July, with the HDFC stock symbol being delisted from 13 July. We also had rating upgrades from S&P for SBI, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank.

Because of all this positive news, we could see an uptrend start again but before that, we may see some profit booking. Given today is the expiry - we could expect some volatility.

So what about the gap fill? That will have to wait, until we go back into the bearish zone. Let's wait and see...

1009AM

Seems like Kotak and Axis haven't been holding on too well.

I'm waiting to see if the 44,125 level will hold. We'll need to test that. Possibly when profit booking takes place.

548PM

So, the BN was up trending today... with a lot of action (see volume) in the last hour.

Tomorrow is a holiday, and Friday will be another trading day before the weekend. So, for option traders, that's a lot of Theta decay.

Let's see how the market has faired from a daily closing pov. Clearly, a strong candle today, closing above the 21 moving average – could this mean we're going to see a more bullish trend in the coming weeks/months - maybe.

Or maybe, we'll just go sideways. The reason is because of the amount of selling at the 44,500 level (notice the long wick on the candle of today).

Enjoy the holiday. Eid Mubarak.