Market View 20230630

With the #banknifty breaking the trend line, we have a confirmation today the market is in a strong uptrend. We also broke the ATH (All Time High)!

While there could be some profit booking, it looks like the market could be going sideways if not higher. In order for it to fill the gap below, we'd need some seriously bad news, until then - we wait.

And so we close this month with our ₹2L of profit, and stay humble 😊.

Let's have a quick glance at the 15 minute chart:

The ATH is 44,666 on futures... that's the new resistance level. With 43800 forming the support. India Vix is at a low of 10.94, which is not good for sellers, but this could change at a moments notice.

1238PM

As the market continues to remain strong, we have to adjust our positions, here's how the volume & OI look like for BN:

• 43000PE, 44000PE, and 44500PE being the most active, so best to take a bet and build positions along those levels. 44500 is a bit too tight, so we can make do with 43000PE and 44000PE

• For August, we can also see activity around 44000PE, 43000PE and 42000PE (top most), but not around 44500. Of course, this is August series, so you will see more round numbers.

Based on the above, 43000PE and 44000PE are better bets. So, let's build along those lines for coming month.

• Seems like it will hold steady, until the end of the day. We have a weekend coming up, so there could be potential booking in the last 30 minutes of the day. If we don't see a correction to 44,100 level we could see higher moves on Monday as well.
• GST (which will probably be record collection again) and auto sales data will be out, so that may give a boost if good.

145PM

• BankNifty continues to hold, though a momentum squeeze is building up, yet to see whether up or down.

317PM

Markets remain high, no unwinding today. This is an indication of a strong market, Monday could see a move higher.

Now imagine this, within 2 months, the BN has moved up by 13%, if you go back a bit further to mid March, that's 15%. Which market gives you this sort of return.

Then again, it's a short time frame, what you really need to look at is the yearly return to make an assessment of the performance.

We've only moved up by 3% in 6 month (below is a weekly chart).