Market View 20230626

For a brief moment, the #banknifty tested the 55 day moving average. Support exists, but for how long?

• The HDFC Bank Merger could cause some weakness in the banknifty - as reallocation takes place in the index and fund managers rebalance their portfolios.

Today, was pretty much a sideways market. The vix did inch up a bit, as you can see from the trend, its getting a bit bearish, and drop below the red line indicated in our chart, means we enter bear territory again. Here's a look at the day's move:

Post Market Review

Should be closing June with at least ₹2L for the month. That's okay. Anyways, we will make it up. Meanwhile, let's figure out possible direction:

• We're not looking at June, as the expiry is just a few days away. So let's take July.
• Straddle Formation at 43000 - which means weakness is expected from current levels, not to mention the 43000PE is forming the base for support.
• At higher levels, we see 46000 CE, 45000CE and 44000CE. So mostly  bearish for July.

• For August, it's pretty much the opposite:

We're looking at August and see the following:

• Straddle Formation at 44000 - but with a higher 44000CE accumulation, which also means bearishness.
• Though for August, we support at 42000PE, 43000PE and even 41000PE.
• So basically on a much wider range, you have 46000 CE <> 42000 CE as the range. Then 44000CE <> 43000PE.

We can conclude that the range could be b/w 44000 <> 43000 for now. We'll slowly build our position for next month based on this.

Have one final look at the chart before closing for the day. You can see the trend line down intact. Keep an eye on that.

Given that platforms may come and go, and you have no control over what gets published, I thought we'd own our own farmland (this platform) and provide it some tender loving care.

Obviously, not everyone is interested in daily or even hourly updates, so this won't be going out as an email newsletter, it will remain on the site.

Maybe at the end of the week, when we publish our newsletter, we will collate the bookmarks and publish that, or we'll point to interesting material.

This was the original idea of a blog, before platforms like Twitter and Facebook popped up (think of them as micro-blogs that own your content, or make it difficult for you to export).

These days, the amount of political content, and negative news, or free/hate speech is enough to cause permanent brain damage. So, instead of filling ourselves with this stuff, let's focus on our priorities, and remove all distractions.

Ideally this should popup automatically on twitter as a tweet. But let's see.

I'll jump in during the day, as and when needed, to include screenshots, and notes.