Market View 20230727
So the market was pretty much flat yesterday, but it did create a bullish pattern, what we call a bullish engulfing chart pattern (i.e. small candle forming after a larger one).
And for a reason, the US Fed hiked interest rates by 25 bps to a target range of 5.25-5.5%, on the expected lines, bringing US benchmark funds rate to the highest level in 22 years, i.e. since 2001 (some say in 40 years).
BUT, markets took this as a positive thing!! We have been having a 13 consecutive high in the US markets. Crazy. (And that worries me, is that an indication of euphoria).
Typically, when you see rate hikes, banks come under extreme pressure to increase their lending rates, and adjust those of existing customers, all of which are going to face pressure now. This imo, should be a negative for banks, but the market seems to have digested it well.
So, given that we're still having a loss from the constant move up, I'll be closing those positions, as today might be a gap up. And aggressive shorting PEs at the lower level of 45800.
- To be more precise, will be closing a 43500CE which I had from a while, and free up margin. And then take positions at 45800, maybe 45900 if I want to be aggressive!
1003am
Here's some interesting BIG news:
Jio Financial Services has formed a 50:50 JV with Blackrock, the world's largest asset management company. They plan to invest upto 1200 crores each. Blackrock manages $8.5 Trillion assets (AUM).
11:26 AM
So profit booking has started. I'm anticipating that the 45800 level will hold, though you never know, if it is severe profit booking, we could go lower to 45650.
12:27 PM
And so we've reached the 45800 level, we'll have to wait and see if this holds. I think it will, at least for today, but can't be so sure. That's like a 1% drop from earlier, and 1.45% drop from the LPH (which was all time high), whomever bought there is probably crying.
1:06 PM
Well, looks like we've broken the 45800 level as well. Now we have the key support at 45650. Let's see if we reach that.
And we always like to believe we're right, even a dead clock is twice a day! But here you go:
Zencapita Notes
1:20 PM
In a span of just 15 minutes, the bottom was found at 45725, which formed the low for the day. Now will this hold? Let's find out!
My gut tells me we will close at 45800.
2:00 PM
3:23 PM
What a week, expiry to expiry... Up on last Thursday, down this Thursday, trending down then spiking up in the week! Enough to give traders a headache.
In hindsight, which is always great... had I not taken that 45500 PE today, we would have been up by 60K. Anyways... the day is over, and so is this months' trading.
3:45 PM
So the market intraday swing was around 1000 points! We closed this month with a profit. But as mentioned earlier, the levels were 45650, which was broken and regained. But we have not crossed 45800, and may not for some time (until I believe the gap below is filled).
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