Market View 20230803

Still looking bearish to me, with the gap fills below - two of them, and one above now. Yesterday's move was quite heavy, but today being an expiry could be a sideways consolidation. After that we could see the real move on Friday / Monday.

Because of the strong momentum moves in BN, I'm thinking of NF instead. But the premium collection is low.

Anyways, let's take a look at the volume so far, being the beginning of the month, it is too early to say, ideally one week should have passed.

For NF, we can see the August series:

Ranging from 19500 <> 20000.

And September series:

Ranging from 18,500/19,000/19,500 <> 20000.

So on the upper side, we can say 20000 max for NF, and lower side of 19500 should be sufficient.

I'm thinking why not take 1x 20000CE and 1x19500PE as well as 1x19000PE. I'll decide after looking at the premiums.

But I'm going to go a step further and look at the premiums to calculate break even for August series:

If we take the 19550-235, we get around 19315 or close to 19300, which is going for a 138 point premium. So let's take that.

Even if we take the September series, we get 19650-350 = 19300. So that can be taken as our base.

Based on the August series, we can see a straddle around 45000, so there's going to be some battling around that level, with a range from: 43000 < > 45500 / 46000 (you could say closer to 46000, with more emphasis on the downside). Based on September series, we have 42000/45000 <> 45000 / 46000 / 48000. Which is actually a big range, but again 45000 is almost like a straddle fighting zone here as well. So short term 43000 <> 46000.

Now, let's look at the premiums to see if we're close by or far off:

With ATM at 45000 - 613 premium, we get a lower range of 44,400 level with which we can be aggressive.

Like wise 45200 - 800, gives us again 44,400 level. So that's a safe support zone.

1:04 PM

In order to fill the gap on... #banknifty We have the 44327 marker to reach, which coincidentally has a support just above at the 44623 level which coincides with 55 EMA. Could this be a repeat of June 2023?

2:24 PM

And so the gap is being filled!